Friday, December 21, 2007
HONG KONG, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks rallied broadly on Friday as stabilising global equity markets lifted investor confidence and fund managers sought to dress up their portfolios before the year-end. Local property developers lifted blue chips as the city's ongoing inflation is expected to boost demand for real estate. Mainland infrastructure plays dominated the day's trade as newcomer China National Materials Co. (1893.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) rallied nearly 24 percent at one point, a day after its strong debut. China Railway(0390.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) was also a star performer, as the world's third-largest construction contractor leapt on talk that it had won a bid for the high-speed Shanghai-to- Beijing railway project. Meanwhile, China's interest rate rise on Thursday was welcome news to investors, as it effectively removed an overhang in the market. "The Christmas rally is finally kicking in," said John Schofield. "The psychology of the market is finally changing and the latest interest rate increase (by China) is good news." "It's been such a bad six to eight weeks ... we'll see a reasonable uptick in the last week of the year." The benchmark Hang Seng Index <.HSI> closed up 2.3 percent, or 609.83 points, to end at 27,626.92, for a weekly gain of 0.2 percent. China Enterprises index of mainland H shares <.HSCE>, or Hong Kong-listed shares in mainland companies, gained 1.6 percent, or 249.03 points, to 15,981.81, up 0.2 percent for the week. Among property shares, Cheung Kong (0001.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) gained 4.5 percent to HK$140.6 and Sun Hung Kai (0016.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) raced up 4.2 percent to HK$160.2. The Hang Seng property sub-index <.HSNP> shot up 4.2 percent. Other large-cap gainers were Sinopec Corp (0386.HK: Quote, Profile , Research)(SNP: Quote, Profile, Research) (600028.SS: Quote, Profile , Research), which leapt 2.3 percent to HK$11.58. The country's No.2 oil and gas producer said it had found gas in northeastern China with 26 billion cubic metres of recoverable reserves. China Life (601628.SS: Quote, Profile , Research) (LFC: Quote, Profile , Research) (2628.HK: Quote, Profile , Research), the country's top life insurer, raced up nearly 3 percent to HK$40.6 and PetroChina (0857.HK: Quote, Profile , Research)(PTR: Quote, Profile, Research)(601857.SS: Quote, Profile , Research) scurried up 2.4 percent to HK$13.84. China Mobile (Hong Kong) Ltd. , (0941.HK: Quote, Profile , Research) (CHL: Quote, Profile , Research), the world's largest wireless telecoms provider, rose 2.2 percent to HK$137.80. ReutersReuters
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Properties fuel HK shares, Sinoma, China Railway leap
China fuel shortage may persist in 2008 -industry
BEIJING, Dec 21 (Reuters) - China may again experience a fuel shortage in 2008 if Beijing maintains a tight lid on domestic oil prices, an industry association said, a situation likely to keep the country's diesel imports high.
The world's second-largest oil market suffered through widespread diesel rationing in October and November, after refineries cut output to stem looses as global crude prices surged above $90 a barrel.
"If refined oil prices are not freed up and crude prices stay high, private refineries will continue to stand and watch, leaving the supply burden on two state companies," the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association said on its Web site www.cpcia.org.cn.
"New refining capacity will not be ready immediately, (existing) plants are unable to carry out thorough maintenance, making safe operation the weakest link in the supply chain."
CPCIA has the support of retired top executives of state oil giants Sinopec Corp (0386.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) and PetroChina (0857.HK: Quote, Profile, Research), the Web site shows.
China's independent oil processors, supplying 10 to 15 percent of the country's 7.5 million barrel-per-day market, had cut production drastically, a main factor behind the supply squeeze that eventually forced Beijing to raise pump prices in November, the first increase in 17 months.
State refiners had to boost diesel imports to nearly record levels, second only to the United States, supporting global prices at a time of peak winter demand. (For details see [ID:nSP24624]) (Reporting by Chen Aizhu; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
Reuters
Happy Holidays,
Marketswimmer
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Wall Street vs. Main Street
Wall Street was disappionted at FED's 25 basis point rate cut and investors started dumping their shares, causing 300 points ups and downs on the Dow. But Main street is looking okay, the newly released holiday sales number is good, 1.2% jump which is the best in 6 month. Lehman Brothers reports record net revenues and earning beats the Wall street expectation. So what went wrong? When we are confused, we should look at how the big guys digest the news and how to put their bets.
My computer contracted some kind of virus and haunted me for a week, and I missed the COT report, which basically indicated that the institutional investors (smart money) increased their holding on S and P -- we can see the result in the pre-FED announcement the market was up; at the same time those guy mysteriously bought a lot of call option contract for VIX index -- which prepared them to dump shares after the FED announcement. The headline showed up in the media was Fed only cut interest rate by 0.25, instead of 0.50 the market expected. Did the Smart Money know this ahead of time or their computer was so good that allowed them to calculate the odds for this to happen and formulated the winning strategy accordingly? I don't have the answer to this and your guess is as good as mine. But the fact is the fact, the clue was there, everything happened just like they follow the script. Amazing, isn't it?
A lot of the volatility was caused by the institutional program trading and day traders following suit, so don't worry about them too much.
Oh, another thing, the Smart Money also reduced their short positions on oil (or bought oil contract), predicting that the cold weather would sweep the Mid-West, which let the Oil price jumped at least $5 to plus $90 per barrel.
If you like the data and graphs, please leave your comments and I will post them later.
Here is the table of Commercial positions published on Dec. 7th of 2007:
| Index | Trader Group | 12/2/2007 | 12/7/2007 | Difference | Open-int | Dow | Commercials | 1197 | 2421 | 1224 | 36127 | Nasdaq | Commercials | 7471 | 8359 | 888 | 52715 | Russ | Commercials | 5421 | 4992 | -429 | 38287 | S&P 500 | Commercials | 29720 | 46177 | 16457 | 657039 | Oil | Commercials | -54002 | -45283 | 8719 | 1382526 | VIX | Commercials | 3894 | 12603 | 8709 | 59689 |
Thank you and I am open for discussion on the resutls
Market Swimmer
Saturday, December 8, 2007
CSIQ, a Chinese Solar Company Broke All Time High
CSIQ - a stock I recommended earlier (click Recent Picks), closed at $18.7 yesterday, broke all time high. Any retreat from this level is our buying opportunity.
Now, here is more information on Chinese solar energy companies:
With more than 10% growth per year, China's economy is an unstoppable train. I call it "the money train". The booming Chinese economy makes it heaven for the hyper-growing companies there. We as investors are having a once in a life time opportunity to benefit from these unique global market conditions. Our focus should be on the Chinese stocks, or ADRs traded on Wall Street.Another unique opportunity comes from the global-warming issue. Coupled with high oil prices, global warming makes the renewable stocks a gold mine for investors. Governments all over the world are now willing to subsidize clean energy, and even the UN declared that massive investments should be done. For example, China's energy czar, Chen Deming, said that China needs $265 billion in investments to meet its renewable energy goals for the next 12 years. $265 Billion! The US has a 'twenty in ten' target, China has a 10% target for renewables by 2020, India has a 10% target by 2012, and EU countries have recently signed up to a 20% mandatory target for energy consumption from renewable sources. In 1997, Ernst & Young predicted global investment in renewable energy would reach US$70b by 2006. At the time, this figure was considered ambitious, but in fact, investment in the renewable and clean energy sector reached just over US$100b in 2006 and could rise to over US$750b by 2016 at current rates of growth.
Vertical integration in this context refers to integrating the different steps in the Polysilicon Based Solar Module production process. Module production involves four steps in chain event:
- Use the raw material sand (SiO2) to produce a very pure form of silicon called polysilicon.
- Use polysilicon to produce wafers and ingots.
- Use wafers and ingots to produce solar cells.
- Use solar cells to produce solar modules.
Manufacturers are yet to immerse in vertically integrating the whole process. There are a few getting their feet wet - Trina Solar (TSL), Yingli Green (YGE), Suntech Power (STP) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ).
- Trina produces solar modules from polysilicon and has plans in the offing for very large scale polysilicon manufacturing.
- Yingli also has business plans along similar lines. They are yet to announce any plans to produce polysilicon.
- Suntech is focused on the wafer to module business currently.
- Candian Solar started out focused solely on producing solar modules from cells but since then has expanded to wafer to solar cell production line and has announced plans for a polysilicon to wafer and ingot line.
The table below compares these 4 manufacturers (click to enlarge):
The sophisticated investor should try to enjoy both worlds of opportunity; if you seek cheap Chinese energy stocks, you will enjoy the benefits of fast growing industry (clean energy) in a comfortable economic environment (China). In the renewable stocks sector, there is the solar industry, which enjoys the fastest growth rate, so the sophisticated investor should look for his gold there.
But one should be careful in picking those stocks, since most of them are not as cheap as they used to be only few months ago. To name few: JA Solar (JASO) with expected P/E=56 for the year and f P/E=36 for 2008, Yingli Green Energy (YGE) with expected P/E=81 for the year and f P/E=42 for 2008, or Sunpower (SPWR), investor's favorite, with P/E=89 for the year and f P/E=59 for 2008.
Those are not so cheap, but if you're willing to give your trust to fresh IPOed stocks, you can check Canadian solar (CSIQ) with an expected forward P/E=13 for 2008, or Trina Solar (TSL) with an expected forward P/E=14 for 2008. Oil is now already above $90 and we should see another boom in the Chinese Renewable Stocks.
Enjoy,
Market Swimmer
Sunday, December 2, 2007
Free Investing Training Center Updated
I have updated the Free Educational Center. For more information, please click on the EDUCATION button on the menu bar.
Education Center is a result of cooperation and joint effort from Market Swimmer and Online Trading Academy. We believe you can learn how to trade from the professional traders and acquire many valuable skills which can benefit you from your personal investing and trading.
In this edition, we focus on Forex free training courses, here is an example of related subjects:
Free Online Forex Training Contents
|
|
I will circulate a few stock trading free courses on the news letter. If you would like to get one, please subscribe my feeds through FeedBurner or Feedblitz (on the top left or right). After about 2 weeks I will post on my site on the Education section. Also if you don't want to subscribe my feed and still want a copy of the free materials, just read Vince Rowe section and leave a message on this post or using the contact form, I will send you a link right away.
If you want me to post any of the free courses on my web, please drop a comment.
Enjoy visiting my web and get free stuff!
Market Swimmer
Friday, November 30, 2007
COT Report and Morning News
One of the unique features of this site is that we follow smart money by checking government's COT report. The delayed report was released on Monday afternoon, I was busy yesterday and I feel the need to make a table and publish the results today. Here is the table:
| Index | Trader Group | 11/19/2007 | 11/26/2007 | Difference | Dow | Commercials | -69 | 292 | 361 | Nasdaq | Commercials | 10273 | 6569 | -3704 | S&P 500 | Commercials | 45139 | 33256 | -11883 | Russ | Commercials | 4776 | 4855 | 79 | VIX | Commercials | 4177 | 4051 | -126 | Oil | Commercials | -23136 | -28584 | -5448 |
These are the net positions of commercial traders (institutions and hedge funds) on various indexes on last Tuesday, they provide a rare opportunity for us to check into the sentiment of the institutional traders, commonly known as the "Smart Money".
Remember, even the smart money can be wrong sometimes and these are the numbers in the past, the market sentiment can change in any moment based on news, earning release and rumors.
Biotech stocks were very strong in Tuesday’s session and could be at a major turning point in the group’s two-month decline.
Chinese Market News Brief
Oil giants upset with Ecuador's tax rise:
President Rafael Correa of Ecuador shocked investors in October by raising the windfall tax from 50 percent to 99 percent, grabbing nearly all the extra oil revenues generated by foreign firms above a set contractual price.
This has had a huge impact on PetroChina, Sinopec and Sinochem; they all have investments in Ecuador. It's reported that PetroChina and Sinopec are preparing to seek help from international arbitration organizations. Sinochem has a US$200 million investment in Ecuador; the company is also preparing to renegotiate their contracts.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Correa arrived in Beijing on Monday for a week long state visit. Senior officials from PetroChina and Sinopec are expected to meet the Oil Minister of Ecuador to discuss the oil tax. However, insiders said that it is not likely that the Ecuadorian side will compromise.
Enjoy,
Market Swimmer
Monday, November 26, 2007
Cyber Monday and OSTK
OSTK -- 20% Discount?
CNN Lou Dobbs Reported:
The Wall Street is waiting for the Black Monday retail sales number. According to the early estimates, the un-official Christmas holiday start shopping is surprisingly strong, Black Friday sales jumped 8-9% over last year!
At the same time, people are celebrating the first official "Cyber Monday", the online e-retailers have been pushing special offers and promotions to draw consumers.
On Friday, the biggest shopping of the year, regular retailers sold over $10 billion gifts/products in their shopping malls and department stores.
Expert estimates that the online store will sell nearly $700 million consumer products on Cyber Monday, enjoy 20% increase year after year. One of the emerging star of e-retailer is Overstock.com (OSTK). This is from Yahoo News:
As the online holiday shopping season officially kicks off Monday, a number of retailers are hosting one-day sales or special offers for the occasion. The Monday after Thanksgiving, tagged "Cyber Monday" by the National Retail Federation, marks the first big online shopping surge for many merchants, as consumers go back to their work computers.
Toys "R" Us Inc. will hold a one-day online sale and rival eToys.com will launch a two-day sale. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. will begin five days of online-only sales.
Online jeweler Blue Nile Inc. will give customers 20 percent off purchases paid through PayPal, eBay Inc.'s electronic payment division. Target Corp., Circuit City Stores Inc., Sears Holdings Corp., Crate & Barrel, the Discovery Store and Overstock.com Inc. are among dozens of retailers offering free shipping that day.
I just turn on my radio at 1320 AM in Houston, at about 7:50 AM when I took my kid to school (oh, I missed Paul Harvey, I hated it) and Patrik was on the radio. He said (this is important, please take a note of it)
- Overstock just signed an agreement with Paypal, anybody shop on OVERSTOCK today with get free-shipping (small potato, he always gives free shipping)
- And shop with Paypal will get 20% money back! This is huge, I couldn't believe my ears, I need to check on this and tell my wife. Could somebody check it out for me?
OK, this is confirmed, I got this from his website:
I will see if I can get recording from the podcasting, and report to you later.
Here are the audio files, courtesy of Brent Clanton. I made a comment on his blog yesterday - 26th - asking for the interview audio files, he sent to me by email last night and read my comment on the Radio this morning - 27th.
Patrick Byrne Part-I
Patrick Byrne Part-II
Thank you Brent for your files and kind comments on your radio show (Houston BizRadio 1320 AM) about my blog!!!
To access Brent's blog, please look for a link on the right sidebar- "Brent Clanton" .
Market Swimmer
CFTC Delayed Release of COT Report
US Commodity Futures Trading Commission usually releases COT report every Friday at 3:30 PM. But last Friday was a holiday, so the releasing has been delayed till Monday the 26th.
The major indices chopped higher in a narrow range day to end the holiday-shortened week. This quiet action should give way to a major move, higher or lower, by the middle of this week.
After market close on Monday, we should check on the government COT report to peek into the trading actions of big institutions, looking for clues of future market direction.
At the present time, the market seems over-sold, both commercial traders and small individual investors think the market is due for a bounce. We will see if market can hold the gain or not.
Other website development:
I have installed a software piece for "Gravatar" - Global Avatar! Avatar refers to a profile picture a visitor can use when he/she leaves a comment on a post.
What is an Avatar?
A computer avatar is a personalized graphic file or rendering that represents a computer user. There are basically two types of avatars: those used at websites, such as on Web exchange boards, and those used in gaming and virtual worlds.
The simplest type of avatar is a small graphics file used on websites. Websites that offer chat boards often allow members to upload an avatar to represent themselves. The avatar can be a real-life digital photo of the person using it, but is more often an image intended to be a creative alter ego. This might be a game-rendered snapshot of a beast, hero, or heroine; a humorous picture of a pet or cartoonish character; or a design that makes a statement. The avatar appears alongside the user’s comments, easily identifying the author for others at a glance.
You can go to www.kaneva.com to experience the virtual reality, or go to http://www.findavatar.info/ to pick up an Avatar you would like. To create a GLOBAL AVATOR, which means that you can go anywhere and leave your comments with one digital image you prefer, please go to http://site.gravatar.com/signup to create an account by using your email. Remember, Avatar is free and fun, you create one to satisfy your own ego, my responsibility is to make sure it will work on my site. We don't maintain your Avatar in anyway. On the other hand, an Avatar is not required to leave comments on my site.
I encourage all of you to give it a try and leave your comments on this board. To give you an example, I and a new friend "deep blue" a couple of comments on the last post http://marketswimmer.com/?p=147. Please take a look. If you have any problems, please let me know.
Have a terrific holiday season,
Market Swimmer
Friday, November 23, 2007
The Market Kicks off the Holiday Season with a BIG BANG!
Markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, and Friday trading closed early at 1 p.m. Eastern time. Expectations for this holiday season had been lowered following drops in consumer confidence surveys.
"Take the consumer confidence readings, they're just numbers from surveys," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services. "But now we're finding out what consumer spending is really like, so the weekend numbers will be very important for the market."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU 12,980.88, +181.84, +1.4%) rallied 181 points to finish at 12,980. The S&P 500 index ($SPX 1,440.70, +23.93, +1.7%) gained 23 points to 1,440, while the Nasdaq Composite ($COMP 2,596.60, +34.45, +1.3%) rose 34 points to 2,596.
Remember, this is a short session and a lot of traders are shopping for their holidays. Nevertheless, let's celebrate the impressive market move by watching a Youtube Chinese music piece - Huo Yuan Jia (adapted from a Chinese Kung Fu movie):
Enjoy,
Market Swimmer
P.S. Forget about trading for a moment, I just watched a movie - "The Family Man" - starred by Nicolas Cage (released in the year of 2000) on NBC. It's an old one, but pretty good. A hedge fund manager "Jack" turned into a tire salesman, married with "Kate", having two kids. A personal note, little Swimmer just got an offer from a big hedge fund in NYC, I am a little worried about it. Anyway, please check it out if you have not seen it:
I missed the beginning, see more on my "YouTube" page:
Market Swimmer YouTube.
