BIDU - A BUYING OPPORTUNITY - CITIGROUP SAYS

CITIGROUP SAYS BAIDU.COM IS ATTRACTIVE BUYING OPPORTUNITY, MAINTAINS BUY

Citigroup analyst Jason Brueschke says Baidu.com (BIDU) shares lost 30% of value in five days. He says the sell-off appears to have been caused by Cisco Systems' (CSCO) disappointing outlook last week for its U.S. enterprise business, but says Baidu's China search market has little fundamental correlation with near-term outlook for US router demand.

Brueschke notes that the company guided for accelerating fourth quarter revenue growth, and posted very strong third quarter fundamental metrics. He says BIDU remains his top pick in China Internet for 2008. He has a $425 target price, based on target multiple at a 70% premium to China Internet peers, mainly due to BIDU's higher-than-peers EPS growth prospects and potential of China's nascent search market.

Daily Picks

It's time to pick up some over-sold/defensive stocks and short some high runing speculative stocks.

Although mortgage turmoil seems to be widening, E-Trade is the recent victim of CDO short falls. But Citibank is over-sold, so I am re-iterating buy recommendation for WCG and issue a buy recommendation for C:

Long: WCG and C

At the same time, I am using my spreadsheet scan through the past "Super Stars" and discovered that MICC, POT are breaking down.

Short: MICC POT

Market Swimmer

Just a Thought - WCG

Have you seen a stock drop from $120 down to $30's in a few days?

It's WCG, a healthcare company. I bought the stock between $60 - $90 a few month ago, I forgot the exact dates, only remember it jumped $5 in a day and then it zig zaged for a while, I lost patience. The story behind is that the CEO has been selling his shares for a long time and people imagined some bad news was going to hit. But executives can sell stocks for many reasons, building a house, send kids to college, or even for a divorce battle like Jack. I have to concede that the amount of insider selling is very large in this case, however.

People also might be worried that Baby-boomers are retiring, and the medi-care system is broken... Don't you think they are worried too much, and too early? We didn't even know if the FED was going to lower the rate last week!!

Copied from the Yahoo news:

"WellCare shares dropped 74.4 percent from Wednesday to Friday on the news, though the exact reasons for the raid still are not clear. Connecticut's attorney general said Friday he has been separately investigating WellCare for months."

Anyway, I bought a few call contracts to see what's going to play out.

Have fun,

Swimmer

Contra Picks

I have not done this for a while, but I ran my contrarian spider/neural network search and found several buy candidates, BGC scored very high.

Strong Buy: BGC

Because it's a machine pick with a lot of parameters, I, as a human, have to find out why it's picking this one favorably. I will let you know later.

Trading for success!

Market Swimmer

China Fire - CFSG - is on Fire!

Quite a few friends asked for more picks. When I looked at my survey, indeed stock pick is the most popular category in this board. How could I forget that? After all the most people want is what I need to do more.

For a good investor, you need to constantly look for investing ideas. I remember a few years ago when Katrina stroke I searched my trading log and notes, tried to find similar events happened in the past, such as earth quake, etc. I found out that after the natural disaster like that, the mobile home business was very popular, so I picked up CHB, it went up 20% in a few month.

So why am I telling you this? Is there any similar event developing? Right, the wild fire in California. Unfortunately half million people had to evacuate and several people died from this devastation disaster. However, what equipment they have to buy after this? Fire detection, fire system control, fire extinguishing equipment? These are a few items I copied directly from CFSG's company profile!

http://marketswimmer.blogspot.com/2007/08/some-of-you-might-be-amazed-how-could.html

This stock happens to be the stock I recommended a few weeks ago when it was around $8, and some friends wondered why I like this stock. At the time I pointed out it had low PE, etc. But now it looks like a real bargain then. Can this stock go even higher? I will provide more information.

Maybe I should change the sub-title of this blog into "Swim into the deep inside of the far east (China) to explore unexpected hidden treasure (or tiger in a movie)!" Any suggestions?

Thanks for reading,

Market Swimmer

Morning Call

** The US Dollar reversed on Monday after making lower
lows (vs. Friday's low) and then closing the session at
higher highs (vs. Friday's high)

** Gold & Oil are starting to show some signs of weakness,
with Gold testing its support at 755. (74 for the GLD etf)

Nasdaq breadth remained surprisingly weak on Tuesday, despite the big opening gap. This is a bearish divergence that points to continued selling pressure in small caps and semiconductors.

Short AMMD

Mid-Day Report

CNBC is saying CPSL (a Chinese Precision Steel Maker) is taking share from foreign steel makers. What else can you expect? Some estimate the forward P/E ratio of this company is about 2.0, so if it were to catch up with the US market average forward PE of 16 - 20, the share price may appreciate 10 times in the next couple of years.

Remember, China will be hosting 2008 Olympic Games, that's why all the Chinese stocks are "red-hot" right now. Hold every thing you bought till 2008!

Year End 2007 China Precision Steel, Inc. Earnings Conference CallWed, Oct 17, 2007, 9:00 am Eastern

Listen to the archived event audio

Have fun,

Mkt Swimmer

Mid-Day Report

Two Chinese stocks are doing well today, despite the market is down:

CMED and
TCM

Besides, NTCT (which I recommended in September) jumped 10% today, click on the "Recent Performance" link on the left column to find more.

I will add more information about these two stocks later.

Swimmer

Life Jackets

Boy, Halloween came early this year. 500 lb pumpkin drop and Al Gore won Nobel Peace prize. Dow went up 200 points then dropped in a dramatically fashion. While Wall Street talking about buy, buy, buy in one minute, sell, sell, sell right after, if you follow CNBC to buy or sell stocks, you will buy at the market top and sell at the market bottom. All swimmers need to take a life jacket. Where is the jacket, you may wonder?

Well, it turns out, you and I don't have to try to figure out the market ourselves, the Guru has already figured out for us. If he figured out, you think he will tell us? No.

Okay, if he doesn't tell us, what's good it gonna do for us. Hmmm, I wonder what Guru is going to do with the information? Right, right, he is going to trade on it. If he make a move, he leaves food on the table. Where to find Guru's trading information? Swimmer, you always claim you are a smart money follower, where were you?

Well if you check my post, not long ago, you would find this on Sunday:

** Stock market

The rally is alive and well, as the majority of the indexes are closing at record highs for 2007. The only exception for now is the Russell 2000, which is just shy of its 07' highs. Pullbacks and periods of consolidation are not out of the question, but the overall market TREND is clearly up. Meanwhile, the COT charts are sending mixed signals. From last week, there was evidence of a large amount of commercial buying of the S&P 500, that went hand in hand with a large amount of commercial selling of the NASDAQ 100 - the index that is leading the current rally . There was also some evidence of commercial selling in the Russell 2000 while the Dow Jones COT chart remains largely unchanged. In conclusion, while the trend continues to point up there is little sense in being bearish on the market. However, in light of the recent commercial selling, especially in the NASDAQ 100: warns me to stay on the cautious side. Typically, when you see big declines in commercial net-position for the NASDAQ, the market either corrects or consolidates in the intermediate future. (1 - 5 months out)

Okay, it's not difficult to find out, isn't it?

That's the reason for the 500 pumpkin drop on the Wall Street yesterday! The commercial sold off NASD index future very badly last week. I warned you, didn't I?

Gee, I wonder what the commercial is doing yesterday... or right now. Don't worry, SEC is going to ask them to disclose all their trading position on every Friday... which happens to be today! Well, well, well, I only wish to know where to find. You don't need to.

Just make a bookmark on this page, you will find the number and Guru's comments on it. Make a lot of sense!!!

Okay, the number was just out, I even don't know what the future is doing, I only care what Guru is doing. I would say, sit tight, fasten your belt, enjoy the ride. If you really want to sell short, sell CKR. Look at the chart you know what I am talking about.

I will add the Pumpkin Drop and Gore Video on later.

Enjoy your day,

Mkt Swimmer

Okay, here you go, 500 lb Pumpkin Drop an Al Gore:

Pick of the Day: SOLF, XING

Lust Caution Interviews:

Guru View an Picks

New Visitor? Like what you read? Then please bookmark this page Thanks for Visiting!

Monday’s holiday-thin market showed persistent strength in big tech and weakness in everything else. The bond market was closed for Columbus Day and it was clear that institutional money was sitting out the equity session as well.

Reiterate: NTES

Strong Buy: TCM, ZNH

Other Buys: CHINA, CPSL, TSTC, QXM, HRAY, JST, SOHU, SINA, CAAS

For fun, watch Houston Airshow:

Fed Numbers

Government job numbers just came out, dollar is rising, oil is dropping. For Perma Bears, this is just another fatal attack to them.

With so much pain and suffering to watch their portfolio and handle margin calls, they will quickly cover all their short positions. With this kind of bad experience staying in their minds, they probably won't short the US equity market for another 10 years!

Have you noticed that CNBC don't invite Heb Greenberg on their show any more, his favorite short recommendations are AAPL and RIMM, do you want to take his advice to manage your portfolio?

Fortunately, for all the friends following Swimmer and buying Chinese ADR's (Chinese Stocks Traded on U.S. Exchanges), you probably have made a fortune already. But it's still early in the game, we have a long way to go.

Introducing NTES, a Chinese internet company, PE of 14.34 (based on Fidelity). All the other Chinese ADRs have rallied recently, not this one. It's a coiled spring or loaded gun.

Enjoy,

Swimmer

Technical Master

** Stock-market indexes broke out, and rallied from their

recent consolidation areas. The Dow Jones and
Nasdaq 100 closed at new highs for the year, while
the S&P 500 is not too far behind. The Russell 2000
put in an impressive rally percentage wise (+2.39%),
but still has some ways to go before challenging its
2007-highs at approx. 855. (today's close: 827.74 )

The uptrend remains intact in the markets: here are
the new support levels:

SPX - 1530
RUT - 820 (82 on the IWM etf; which closed today at 82.03 )
NDX - 2100
INDU - 13900

Happy trading,

Mkt Swimmer

Two Winners of The Day

According to Yahoo Finance, the following stocks that I recommended had made the Winners of the Day:

CNTF - Today's performance 28% so far
CPSL - Today's performance 20%
CEA - A Chinese airlines, breakout on technical basis

Thank you for visiting my blog,

Have a profitable trading day!

Mkt Swimmer

Market Overview and China Picks

Several visitors asked new picks, here are a few more:

ACTS - a technology company with PE of 8.4. Even yesterday went up, the up-trend probably will continue.

CHINA - What else can be more appropriate to buy a Chinese stock with a symbol of CHINA?

As you can see that from technical standpoint the stock market has broken out to the up side generating a buy signal. Once that happens the bears who shorted the market knew that they were wrong, now they have to deal with their mistakes. And their wrong short positions "burn" their portfolio, each day goes on they loss more money. Therefore, this is a very profitable period of time for longs. Any dip should be bought.

Smart money followers predicted this turn-around long before anybody else. So buckle up and enjoy the ride!

Mkt Swimmer

Quick Overview

Quick Overview

• Canada's wholesale sales up 2.0% from June.
  
• Retail sales in the U.K. rose 0.6%.
  
• China plans to restrict fuel made from agricultural products and cut import tariffs to reduce food inflation. Corn demand is expected up 14.5% by 2010, while output is expected to rise 3.5%.
  China's overall inflation rate in August was a 10-year high of 6.5%. China's food-price inflation however was 18.2%, 34.6% for vegetable oils and 495 percent for meat.
  
• YoY, on September 19, cocoa stocks in New York Board of Trade warehouses fell 14% to 3.77 million bags. There are also concerns about the presence of black pod disease in the Ivory Coast.
  
• Credit Suisse, raised its 12-month forecast for gold, silver and other precious metals because of supply shortfalls and a decline in the value of the dollar.

Buy:

CPSL

NTCT

Corn and Nickel

Some perma bears are very unhappy about Bernanke:

Yesterday, I said that the Fed had become Wall Street's "Bitch". It was toward the end of the post, and I assumed it would hardly get noticied. However, I guess it was pithy enough to have gotten picked up by a few media outlets. Today, I wanted to steer the discussion the other way: Ben seems like a smart guy who does not want to be Wall Street's play thing. He doesn't strike me as irresponsible, and he sure doesn't want to go by the nickname "Helicopter Ben." So let's consider the other side of the coin: What did the Fed Chair and the FOMC see that spooked them into a half point reaction?

Happy or not, unfortunately they have to cover their short positions.

Introducing Corn Products International Inc:

CPO (Bee Pick Buy)

Ni price took a hit before, it will recover. Look for a strong SYNL:



Have a nice day,

Swimmer

Guru View and Pick

Harvard professors believe that market goes like a random walk. But if it's a random walk, how come a few rich Wall street operators are getting richer and richer? Do you know how much Goldman Sachs CEO bonus was?

Not so said the Smart Money watchers, watch the big guys, there are plenty of money to be made.

Look for small cap stocks to take over market leadership as the major indices continue their recovery efforts and re-approach the summer highs.

Today's Swimmer Contarian pick:

DRYS

Leave comments if want the reasons behind.

Enjoy,

Mkt Swimmer

China Picks

PTR, SCR.

Please leave comments, if you may.

Mkt Swimmer

Picks Explained

CMI was from Stockbee list
DRL was Swimmer Contrarian pick
ANN was Insider pick

For now, it looks Contrarian and insider work better than Stockbee.

Cheers!