China Syndrome 4

China has 1.3 billion people, the most populous country in the world. Every thing seems BIG, huge in proportion in China: The Great Wall -- the only man made object can be seen by naked eye from the Moon, Three Gorges Dam -- the largest hydroelectric river dam in the world, just name a few.

There are many astonishing stories related to it's biggest population, for instance, the biggest Holiday -- Chinese New Year, or "Spring Festival":

Every year on the second day of the second new moon after the winter solstice, a remarkable human migration takes place. It is the day when all Chinese travel home to share dinner with their families on the eve of the Chinese New Year. Every year, on the first day of the New Year’s holiday (also known as the Spring Festival), the Chinese government commands the attention of a vast percentage of those reunited family units for four solid hours, through its annual holiday telecast. While the three-hour Super Bowl is famous for drawing 80-90 million viewers in the United States, the Spring Festival Gala aired on CCTV draws 600-700 million viewers each year, about 30 million of whom are overseas Chinese viewing via satellite television or through the Internet.

The Spring Festival Gala is no ordinary variety show. It is rumored that planning for the next year’s show starts just days after the New Year, and casting changes are topics of gossip in the Style section of newspapers. The show’s live audience is a showcase of the Chinese elite: top government officials, Olympic medalists, generals, pop artists, and famous directors who chat gleefully with each other and smile approvingly at performances. The annual Gala commands huge sums from advertisers. Spots range from 3 million to 10 million RMB for expected total ad revenues of between 350 and 400 million RMB (dollars). A well-liked show will be a conversation starter for weeks; a badly staged or uncreative show will leave the Chinese critiquing it for the rest of the year.

RISING DRAGON:

The transformation undergoing in China’s economy can be seen in the country’s population demographic shift towards urbanization over the past two decades, with this trend projected to continue according to the United Nations. The chart below shows that the percentage of the Chinese population in rural areas is expected to decline from 80.4% in 1980 to 39.5% by 2030 and conversely, the percentage living in urban areas to triple from 19.6% in 1980 to 60.5% by 2030.



As this population shift has occurred, Chinese energy consumption has surged with the country playing a greater global importance by gobbling up incremental energy supply. The relative importance of China on world energy consumption growth this decade is clearly visible in the figure below.



China has represented a staggering 72.2% of the incremental consumption growth in coal since the start of this decade, nearly 36% of oil consumption, 16.7% of nuclear consumption (uranium), and 7.5% of natural gas consumption.

Not only has China represented the largest contribution to the growth in world incremental demand since the turn of the century, but the country has also risen in importance of aggregate world energy consumption.

In terms of total world primary energy consumption, China accounts for 38.6% of coal consumption, 8.9% of oil consumption, 2% of natural gas consumption, and 2% for uranium consumption. Though the country only accounts for 2% of natural gas and uranium consumption, the country’s share in total consumption is only going to increase as its growth rate of consumption of those energy sources is surging.



-- To be Cont.