GS Says "Take Profit" with Oil

Source: Bloomberg 10/30/2007

Goldman Says `Take Profits' After Crude Hit Record (Update3)

By Mathew Carr and Margot Habiby

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the bank that said in July oil may reach $95 a barrel, told clients it was ``time to take profits'' after crude rose to a record $93.80 in New York yesterday.

``We are now more cautious on the near-term upside potential for oil prices,'' analysts including Jeffrey Currie in London said in the bank's Energy Weekly today. ``We are not trying to call a top here, just take profits.''

Goldman said it was closing its long positions in New York oil futures. Oil has gained 51 percent this year as hedge funds and other large speculators increased bets on rising prices. Net-long positions in New York crude futures in the week ended Aug. 3 jumped to the highest in more than a decade.

``The downside risks we have embedded in our end of first quarter 2008 oil price target of $80 a barrel are beginning to gain momentum,'' the report said. ``These include increasing exports, a slowing U.S. economy, an adequate level of heating oil inventories.''

Crude oil for December delivery fell $2, or 2.1 percent, to $91.53 a barrel at 12:56 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price for March delivery was at $89.51 a barrel and at $84.31 for December next year.

Goldman's recommendation ``might be a bit early,'' especially if colder weather boosts demand during the next two months, said Francisco Blanch, a London-based analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. Blanch predicts oil will average $80 a barrel for the three months through December, and that prices are more likely to reach $100 soon than $60.

U.S. Imports

``I think you'll get some more oil into the U.S.,'' Blanch said today by phone. ``It will take another few months to get it up and running.''

An increase in crude supplies will partly come from the Greater Plutonio oil field in Angola and the Genghis Khan field in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, which both started this month and will likely ramp up production during the next few weeks, Goldman said.

``The strength in freight rates from West Africa to the U.S. Gulf Coast suggests that U.S. refineries may be preparing to receive more of the new Angolan low-sulfur medium grade Plutonio,'' the report said.

``Our view is that we don't think prices are sustainable where they are,'' Michael Waldron, energy markets research analyst with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, said today by phone.

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There is no hurricane, no new war broke out, the $90 plus oil is largely based on speculation, not on supply and demand. The same group of analysts said earlier this year that "Oil is going to break down below $50" (at the time, remember, OPEC reduced production, they said OPEC is going to cheat) due to a little bit marm than normal wheather. Look at what they did, they scare averybody the whole s*%@ out of it, everybody sold off their USO, they bought all of them, now oil broke $90 per barrel, even after OPEC increased production. Something does not make sense here.

Sure, they don't worry OPEC cheating on their quotas, because OPEC openly say they are increasing production capacity. Now they blame China, India. Okay, maybe last winter, when we had warm wheather, China stopped driving cars, or stopped annual rate of growth of 10%?

Don't be fooled, China's oil demand increases by about 2% every year (Does that justify the fact oil went from $50 to $90? I don't think so). The inventory in US is higher than 5-year average. They hyped it up just so they can get rid of their long positions, so that they can accumulate shorts on it. They probably have already established short positions (Swimmer did, for a little guy like me, I can buy DCR to short oil), that's why they are holding a sign to us, saying "sell, sell, selll".

Remember, maybe two years ago, Morgan Stanley or somebody invented the super spike oil theory, oil is going $100 when oil was $60. Oil probably hit $75 and made a 180 degree turn back to $50, that's where no body can hold on to it. This year they started saying "Oil is positioned to go beyond $150!!" I said to myself, you are right, that's where I started to short, the same nice trick again. Oil may go beyond $150 in our life time, no doubt about it, but not this year, okay?

Swimmer