Guru View

** Stock Market
The Dow Jones closed in the red, every single day
of the past week - that is 5 consecutive down-closes.
So is the market going to crash on Monday??

Here is how I see it:
On the bearish side you have
- a breakdown of short-term support levels
- the Nasdaq's and most recently Russell's COT charts
show evidence of commercial selling.

From the bull's perspective
- the Nasdaq 100 did NOT break-down (price-chart) and
remains above short-term support at 2125.
(52.28 for the QQQQ's)
- the S&P 500 COT chart is bullish.
- The S&P 500 is just above strong support at 1490-1500,
or 148-149 for the SPY etf.
- The Dow Jones is also just above support at 13,400 - 500,
or 134 for the DIA etf.

Also watch the Russell 2000, it closed just underneath its
critical 800-level. The IWM etf was weaker and closed at
79.09.

Stocks closed at session lows on Friday, so new lows on
Monday are probable. However, when you take into
account that the Nasdaq-100 did NOT break-down and
that the other indexes are at or just above significant
support levels, it is probably a little late to get overly
bearish. If Friday's session was driven by panic-selling, we
should see the markets better Friday's high sometime this
coming week. On the other hand, if the markets struggle,
then this correction may have another leg down in store for us.

Watch the strongest performing index for clues (Nasdaq 100),
if it's trading below 2125 - there is little reason to be bullish on
the stock-market.

** US Dollar
The USD continues to decline, and commercials are not picking a
bottom just yet - as seen on the COT chart. And so: the price /
COT charts remain bearish.

** Gold & Oil
These commodities have had stellar performances over the last
few months. And while their respective trends continue to point
UP, gold's COT chart is especially worrisome. Commercials
continue to sell gold as net-commercial position keeps going
lower virtually every week. While gold could go higher, its
"structure" is very bearish right now. Any technical break-downs
should be paid close attention to. In particular I would watch
September's high (now support) for $GOLD at around 755.