Showing posts with label Smart Money Trail. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Smart Money Trail. Show all posts

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Wall Street Journal on Chinese IPO - LFT, FUQI, etc.

Congrats to ChinaIPO! CI's posts on our blog provided insightful information and many blogs around the world syndicated CI's articles. It has been the most popular articles in Cyber space according to StatCount report:

*** marketswimmer.blogspot.com/2007/10/fuqi-international-fuqi.html
** marketswimmer.blogspot.com/2007/10/longtop-financial-technologies-limited.html
* marketswimmer.blogspot.com/2007/10/crystal-ball-report.html

In today's Wall Street Journal, the news finally broke out:

Latest China IPO in U.S. Soars 85%


Longtop Financial Wows, Eclipsing
U.S. Energy Firm
By LYNN COWAN
October 25, 2007; Page C3

For the second day in a row, U.S. investors were wowed by the initial public offering of a Chinese company and paid less attention to an American energy company.

The resulting market activity sent the IPO of Chinese software maker Longtop Financial Technologies Ltd. up 85% yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange, the second-best IPO debut of the year, after Athenahealth Inc.'s top 97% gain. Meanwhile, the day's other IPO, Vanguard Natural Resources LLC, fell below its IPO price.

On Tuesday, a similar theme played out: Chinese jeweler Fuqi International Inc. rose 16% on its first day of trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market, while Kansas petroleum refinery CVR Energy inc. gained 7% on the NYSE.

Longtop closed at $32.40 a share, up from its IPO price of $17.50. It sold 10.4 million American depositary shares at a price above its expected range of $14 to $16, which had already been raised by $2 last week.

Based in Xiamen, China, Longtop is a software developer and technology-services provider that focuses on financial institutions in that country, including three of the four largest state-controlled banks: China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Bank of China.

Derek Palaschuk, the company's chief financial officer, said, "The banking infrastructure and business processes are so different in China that a lot of solutions from U.S. companies just don't work."

The company plans to use its IPO proceeds in part to purchase an office building in Xiamen and to pay dividends to its former private owners; the company doesn't intend to pay dividends to new shareholders who purchase stock in the IPO. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was the global coordinator for the IPO.

In contrast to Longtop's swift gains, energy company Vanguard Natural Resources' IPO stalled on its first day of trading.

The stock closed at $18.94 a share on NYSE Euronext's NYSE Arca marketplace, down about 1% from its IPO price of $19 a share. The company sold 5.25 million units at a price at the low end of its expected range.

Vanguard is an oil and gas exploration company with properties located in Kentucky and Tennessee.

The units it sold in the IPO represent limited-liability interests in its underlying business, a tax structure that allows it to pay out available cash in the form of a generous dividend. Vanguard intends to pay an annual dividend of $1.70 a share, which at the IPO price equates to a yield of nearly 9%.

Energy companies structured as partnerships haven't fared well with investors recently. The last two, Encore Energy Partners LP and Quicksilver Gas Services LP, ended their first days of trading flat.

Citigroup Inc. was the book-running manager on Vanguard's offering.

Write to Lynn Cowan at lynn.cowan@dowjones.com

Link to WSJ: Latest China IPO in U.S. Soars 85%
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If you read CI's report on October 15th, you could have made some money:

FUQI International (FUQI)
Longtop Financial Technologies Limited

Sunday, October 21, 2007

COT Report

Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (WWW.cftc.gov)

Commitments of Traders:

The Commitments of Traders (COT) reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for market reports in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC.

Reports are available in both a short and long format. The short report shows open interest separately by reportable and nonreportable positions. For reportable positions, additional data is provided for commercial and non-commercial holdings, spreading, changes from the previous report, percents of open interest by category, and numbers of traders.

The long report, in addition to the information in the short report, groups the data by crop year, where appropriate, and shows the concentration of positions held by the largest four and eight traders.

Supplemental reports show aggregate futures and option positions of Noncommercial, Commercial, and Index Traders in 12 selected agricultural commodities.

IndexTrader GroupFriday 10/12/07Friday 10/19/07Difference
Dow Jones Index CompositeCommercials1720-39-1759
Large Traders-730-1351-621
Small Speculators-99013902380
NASDAQ 100Commercials35232509-1014
Large Traders35523331-221
Small Speculators-7075-58401235
S&P 500Commercials6236653142-9224
Large Traders-370043530572309
Small Speculators-25362-178347528
Russell 2000Commercials43683717-651
Large Traders-8880-8545335
Small Speculators45124828316



Why the small speculators have to increase their futures positions at the worst possible moment for all the indexes all the time? What a coincidence?

Do you want to follow the small guys (grandpa and grandma)or the commercials (GS, big guys)? Interpretation will follow.

Enjoy,

Mkt Swimmer

Saturday, September 15, 2007

Smart Money Report

According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC, A U.S. federal agency established by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Act of 1974), here is a picture of how the commercials, large traders and small investors betting on the futures market:

On 9/13:

NASD-100: Commercial decreased slightly to 25,680
Russ-2000: Commercial increased to 9,224
SNP-500: Commercial decreased from 11,980 to 6,800. This the second week in a roll.

Guru report will follow.

Swimmer