Hi Everybody,
I promised to put up a poll and I fulfilled my promise yesterday. Thank you for your support, I got more than 30 people checked with the poll and 9 of you registered the votes. It looks like most people want to see more comments, that's exactly what I am thinking of doing.
Market Swimmer, as digital bits of information, has lived in the cyber space for 2 weeks now. I just checked on the traffic meter, we have had 284 unique visitors and 1003 hits on the internet since I set up the meter ~10 days ago.
"Market Swimmer" is a searchable phrase in cyber space now, if you ever forget my URL, just google me.
More impressively, Swimmer has met 132 new friends in the following countries:
The US
Canada
Australia
India
Singapore
Germany
Netherlands
Portugal
Vietnam
Spain
France
Estonia
Brazil
I looked carefully on the pie chart, I found 3 more countries: France, Estonia and Brazil, thanks for coming!
What can be more fun than this? Just to show that Swimmer is not purely a virtual phenomenon (nobody wants to talk to a SIMON), I am going to give away some secrets of Swimmer's life little by little.
Swimmer learnt to swim in a hometown river naked at a very early age, but him wife just started learning swimming recently. Her fearful experience coincided with the market panic selling which peaked around mid-August, which inspired Swimmer to get on the internet to share his eccentric market views and trade "black humors" and laughter's.
After all, investing does not have to be dull, you can still have some fun.....
Swimmer is an idealist, he believes that in long term stock price should track the company's future earning potential, so buy the lowest PE if you can.
Swimmer is also academic, while in short term, stock price moves like a random walk, responding to any kind of news, rumor, hyping, fear, positive earning, insider selling. Charles Dow once said investors are constantly discounting stock prices based on the newly available information.
Even worse, Harvard professors believe "market efficiency" theory, which means you can not make an abnormal return (beat the market) by studying the numbers, watching the charts, the strongest form of the "efficiency theory" says you can not make extra profit even by using insider information! I am not sure I can believe that.
However, Swimmer is a big skepticism monger, conspiracy theory believer. He believes British Royal family killed Princess Diana, and there is always a big invisible hand trying to manipulate the market. So on a truth finding mission he does not trust Cramer, Herb Greenburg, Burnanke and any self-claimed fortune-teller alike. He is a confessed data-junky (he got a PhD in this country, he still has problem with grammar and choice of words, maybe computer-geek is more appropriate?), before he believes any thing or make any claim, he has to find some numbers to back it up. That's why he likes to chase smart money flow, and wants to know how the big players in the market puting their bets.
Although Swimmer warships Buffett, by no mean he is a buy and hold long term investor. He believes that even everything is wonderful for a company, the "big-hand" can beat up the stock to its death, keeping that stock price depressed forever. He believes play both sides of the market, going short or long, making profit from the trails of information the big-guys left behind.
Good news, Swimmer started a small model portfolio (with real money in a real broker) from last November, to date, the smart money portfolio has gone up 96%. Swimmer's goal is to double the portfolio every year, which the academia said it's impossible.
Swimmer is a big believer of Stockbee's methodology (I know most of you are Stockbee's fans as well), especially the way Pradeep deals with the numbers. Swimmer wants to get Pradeep's list, uses a computer algorithm to find 1 or 2 stocks per week, takes bold action, puts a stop loss right below the purchase price, moves the stop price every day, and keeps the stock until it trips the stop. This way, you take away the interference of human emotions (fear and greed). By the way, Swimmer is not afraid of bear market, in that case he is going to short stocks every day.
I wanted to keep my comments short, unfortunately it's too long again. Don't worry, I will shorten up a little tomorrow.
But for the mean time, have a nice weekend everybody.
Hope to keep you coming back often.
Swimmer
4 comments:
Hi Swimmer,
if I've understood you, you put the stop-loss in the last closing price?. So you only benefit from stocks that go up and up, without pullbacks. Is that right?.
Thx.
Exactly, you got it.
and you get many rallies with this system?. I'd be surprised if you can hold the stocks for more than 3/4 days. When the stop-loss is triggered do you buy again the stock?.
Best.
How to set stop price is an art, you can not set it too close. Anyway, if it stops out, I usually won't pick up for a while, because I have new candidates every day.
Thanks,
Swimmer
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