COT Report and Morning News

One of the unique features of this site is that we follow smart money by checking government's COT report. The delayed report was released on Monday afternoon, I was busy yesterday and I feel the need to make a table and publish the results today. Here is the table:

Index	Trader Group	11/19/2007	11/26/2007	Difference
Dow	Commercials	-69	292	361
Nasdaq	Commercials	10273	6569	-3704
S&P 500	Commercials	45139	33256	-11883
Russ	Commercials	4776	4855	79
VIX	Commercials	4177	4051	-126
Oil	Commercials	-23136	-28584	-5448

These are the net positions of commercial traders (institutions and hedge funds) on various indexes on last Tuesday, they provide a rare opportunity for us to check into the sentiment of the institutional traders, commonly known as the "Smart Money".

Remember, even the smart money can be wrong sometimes and these are the numbers in the past, the market sentiment can change in any moment based on news, earning release and rumors.

Biotech stocks were very strong in Tuesday’s session and could be at a major turning point in the group’s two-month decline.

Chinese Market News Brief

Oil giants upset with Ecuador's tax rise:
President Rafael Correa of Ecuador shocked investors in October by raising the windfall tax from 50 percent to 99 percent, grabbing nearly all the extra oil revenues generated by foreign firms above a set contractual price.

This has had a huge impact on PetroChina, Sinopec and Sinochem; they all have investments in Ecuador. It's reported that PetroChina and Sinopec are preparing to seek help from international arbitration organizations. Sinochem has a US$200 million investment in Ecuador; the company is also preparing to renegotiate their contracts.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Correa arrived in Beijing on Monday for a week long state visit. Senior officials from PetroChina and Sinopec are expected to meet the Oil Minister of Ecuador to discuss the oil tax. However, insiders said that it is not likely that the Ecuadorian side will compromise.

Enjoy,

Market Swimmer

Cyber Monday and OSTK

OSTK -- 20% Discount?

CNN Lou Dobbs Reported:

The Wall Street is waiting for the Black Monday retail sales number. According to the early estimates, the un-official Christmas holiday start shopping is surprisingly strong, Black Friday sales jumped 8-9% over last year!

At the same time, people are celebrating the first official "Cyber Monday", the online e-retailers have been pushing special offers and promotions to draw consumers.

On Friday, the biggest shopping of the year, regular retailers sold over $10 billion gifts/products in their shopping malls and department stores.

Expert estimates that the online store will sell nearly $700 million consumer products on Cyber Monday, enjoy 20% increase year after year. One of the emerging star of e-retailer is Overstock.com (OSTK). This is from Yahoo News:

As the online holiday shopping season officially kicks off Monday, a number of retailers are hosting one-day sales or special offers for the occasion. The Monday after Thanksgiving, tagged "Cyber Monday" by the National Retail Federation, marks the first big online shopping surge for many merchants, as consumers go back to their work computers.

Toys "R" Us Inc. will hold a one-day online sale and rival eToys.com will launch a two-day sale. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. will begin five days of online-only sales.

Online jeweler Blue Nile Inc. will give customers 20 percent off purchases paid through PayPal, eBay Inc.'s electronic payment division. Target Corp., Circuit City Stores Inc., Sears Holdings Corp., Crate & Barrel, the Discovery Store and Overstock.com Inc. are among dozens of retailers offering free shipping that day.

I just turn on my radio at 1320 AM in Houston, at about 7:50 AM when I took my kid to school (oh, I missed Paul Harvey, I hated it) and Patrik was on the radio. He said (this is important, please take a note of it)

• Overstock just signed an agreement with Paypal, anybody shop on OVERSTOCK today with get free-shipping (small potato, he always gives free shipping)


• And shop with Paypal will get 20% money back! This is huge, I couldn't believe my ears, I need to check on this and tell my wife. Could somebody check it out for me?

OK, this is confirmed, I got this from his website:



I will see if I can get recording from the podcasting, and report to you later.

Here are the audio files, courtesy of Brent Clanton. I made a comment on his blog yesterday - 26th - asking for the interview audio files, he sent to me by email last night and read my comment on the Radio this morning - 27th.

Patrick Byrne Part-I

Patrick Byrne Part-II

Thank you Brent for your files and kind comments on your radio show (Houston BizRadio 1320 AM) about my blog!!!

To access Brent's blog, please look for a link on the right sidebar- "Brent Clanton" .

Market Swimmer

CFTC Delayed Release of COT Report

US Commodity Futures Trading Commission usually releases COT report every Friday at 3:30 PM. But last Friday was a holiday, so the releasing has been delayed till Monday the 26th.



The major indices chopped higher in a narrow range day to end the holiday-shortened week. This quiet action should give way to a major move, higher or lower, by the middle of this week.

After market close on Monday, we should check on the government COT report to peek into the trading actions of big institutions, looking for clues of future market direction.

At the present time, the market seems over-sold, both commercial traders and small individual investors think the market is due for a bounce. We will see if market can hold the gain or not.

Other website development:

I have installed a software piece for "Gravatar" - Global Avatar! Avatar refers to a profile picture a visitor can use when he/she leaves a comment on a post.

What is an Avatar?

A computer avatar is a personalized graphic file or rendering that represents a computer user. There are basically two types of avatars: those used at websites, such as on Web exchange boards, and those used in gaming and virtual worlds.

The simplest type of avatar is a small graphics file used on websites. Websites that offer chat boards often allow members to upload an avatar to represent themselves. The avatar can be a real-life digital photo of the person using it, but is more often an image intended to be a creative alter ego. This might be a game-rendered snapshot of a beast, hero, or heroine; a humorous picture of a pet or cartoonish character; or a design that makes a statement. The avatar appears alongside the user’s comments, easily identifying the author for others at a glance.

You can go to www.kaneva.com to experience the virtual reality, or go to http://www.findavatar.info/ to pick up an Avatar you would like. To create a GLOBAL AVATOR, which means that you can go anywhere and leave your comments with one digital image you prefer, please go to http://site.gravatar.com/signup to create an account by using your email. Remember, Avatar is free and fun, you create one to satisfy your own ego, my responsibility is to make sure it will work on my site. We don't maintain your Avatar in anyway. On the other hand, an Avatar is not required to leave comments on my site.

I encourage all of you to give it a try and leave your comments on this board. To give you an example, I and a new friend "deep blue" a couple of comments on the last post http://marketswimmer.com/?p=147. Please take a look. If you have any problems, please let me know.

Have a terrific holiday season,

Market Swimmer

The Market Kicks off the Holiday Season with a BIG BANG!

Markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, and Friday trading closed early at 1 p.m. Eastern time. Expectations for this holiday season had been lowered following drops in consumer confidence surveys.

"Take the consumer confidence readings, they're just numbers from surveys," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services. "But now we're finding out what consumer spending is really like, so the weekend numbers will be very important for the market."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU 12,980.88, +181.84, +1.4%) rallied 181 points to finish at 12,980. The S&P 500 index ($SPX 1,440.70, +23.93, +1.7%) gained 23 points to 1,440, while the Nasdaq Composite ($COMP 2,596.60, +34.45, +1.3%) rose 34 points to 2,596.

Remember, this is a short session and a lot of traders are shopping for their holidays. Nevertheless, let's celebrate the impressive market move by watching a Youtube Chinese music piece - Huo Yuan Jia (adapted from a Chinese Kung Fu movie):

Enjoy,

Market Swimmer

P.S. Forget about trading for a moment, I just watched a movie - "The Family Man" - starred by Nicolas Cage (released in the year of 2000) on NBC. It's an old one, but pretty good. A hedge fund manager "Jack" turned into a tire salesman, married with "Kate", having two kids. A personal note, little Swimmer just got an offer from a big hedge fund in NYC, I am a little worried about it. Anyway, please check it out if you have not seen it:

I missed the beginning, see more on my "YouTube" page:
Market Swimmer YouTube.

SSE Index Dipped 1.5%, But Hong Kong Stocks Gain

Share prices drop slightly on Wednesday

Chinese share prices on Wednesday dropped slightly with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A and B shares, dipped 79.47 points, or 1.50 percent, to 5,214.23. The Shenzhen Component Index on the smaller Shenzhen Stock Exchange dropped 239.29 points, or 1.41 percent, to 16,748.19.

The Hushen 300 Index, accounting for 60 percent of the nation’s stock market value, was down 71.76 points, or 1.42 percent, to 4,997.62.

(Xinhua News Agency November 21, 2007)

HK stocks gain 1.13% on turnaround trading

Hong Kong stocks rebounded from a huge deficit of more than 1,000 points in early trading to close 311.04 points higher at 27,771.21 on Tuesday.

The blue-chip Hang Seng Index opened 876.53 points, or 3.19 percent, sharply lower at 2,6583.64 under the combined impact of Wall Street's overnight slump and the Chinese mainland market downturns in early trading.

The index plunged as much as 1,055.89 points, or 3.85 percent, to the day's lowest 26,404.28 during the morning session.

nvestors chose to scoop up cheap equities when trading was resumed in the afternoon, encouraged by the turnaround performance of markets on the Chinese mainland and Japan.

Investors' orders for market heavyweight China Mobile, together with oil and steel sectors, boosted the index out of the negative territory in the afternoon to close 311.04 points, or 1.13 percent, higher at 27,771.21, just off the day's highest level at 27,851.31.

Turnover rose to 146.41 billion HK dollars (18.83 billion U.S. dollars) from Monday's 103.96 billion HK dollars (13.37 billion U. S. dollars).

China Mobile, the country's largest mobile phone operator and the market's largest stock measured by capitalization, pared its early losses and rebounded from the day's lowest 125 HK dollars to close 1.97 percent higher at 134.4 HK dollars.

HSBC, another market heavyweight and the city's largest bank, narrowed its losses by dipping 0.22 percent to 135.2 HK dollars. It once fell to the day's lowest 132.3 HK dollars.

Bank of EastAsia rose 4.77 percent to 50.55 HK dollars while BOCHK fell 2.84 percent to 19.18 HK dollars. BOCHK announced Monday it has bought a 4.94 percent stake in Bank of EastAsia.

PetroChina, the largest oil producer in China, rose 2.2 percent to 14.84 HK dollars. CNOOC, China's largest offshore oil producer, surged 5.93 percent to 13.22 HK dollars. Sinopec, the largest oil refiner in Asia, leaped 4.61 percent to 10.9 HK dollars.

Hong Kong's property companies were mixed. New World Development fell 3.82 percent to 26.45 HK dollars while Sino Land lost 2.76 percent to 24.65 HK dollars. SHK Properties gained 1.96 percent to 149.8 HK dollars. Cheung Kong gained 0.79 percent to 139.7 HK dollars.

Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Limited, the market's sole operator, dipped 0.61 percent 228.2 HK dollars.

The H-shares index, which was composed of companies registered on the Chinese mainland, gained 332.21 points, or 2.01 percent, to close at 16,867.38.

Most of China's Banking and financials rebounded. ICBC, China's largest lender, rose 2 percent to 6.12 HK dollars. CCB, the second largest bank in China, gained 1.78 percent to 7.44 HK dollars. Bank of China slid 0.47 percent to 4.26 HK dollars.

China Life, or the country's largest life insurer, recovered 2 percent to 43.45 HK dollars. Ping An gained 0.92 percent to 88.15 HK dollars.

Iron and steel sectors all jumped over rising sales prices. Angang Steel jumped 8.19 percent to 21.8 HK dollars. Maanshan Iron surged 10.71 percent to 5.48 HK dollars. Shougang International gained 1.16 percent to 3.49 HK dollars.

(Xinhua News Agency November 21, 2007)

Guru View

Developing Stories:

• Evidence of significant commercial interest on the long-side for crude oil - as of last week.


• Commercials continue to sell the US dollar as its dropping to record lows. This is very bearish: Key resistance at 76. So if we rally above 76, watch out for a short squeeze.


• The US stock market remains weak after breaking below key levels a few weeks ago. We may see a bottom soon, as the indexes are nearing key support, while the NASDAQ-100 is displaying relative strength...