Guru View

Introducing the new blogger site: www.marketswimmer.com

** US Dollar

The US Dollar continues its 'relentless' decline. While there
are no signs of a bottom on the price-chart, the COT chart
is not any less bearish. Commercial position has been
declining marginally, but declining never the less for the last
5 consecutive days. Commercials typically like to buy when
prices fall. Well, the USD has been clearly falling, and
commercials are NOT buying.
In other words, the outlook for the USD continues to
remain bearish from a price/COT chart perspective.

** Stock Market

DIA - Stockcharts chart
After Thursday's sell-off: the markets reversed on
Friday after bottoming near key support levels:
Dow Jones - 13400
S&P 500 - 1490
Russell 2000 - 790

If we hold above these levels in the coming weeks, one
may argue that a short-term bottom is in place and we
are headed back up to test overhead resistance.

From the COT charts, not much has changed. The S&P
500 & Dow Jones charts look constructive. While the
Russell 2000 & Nasdaq 100 charts look bearish.
As for the Nasdaq 100 chart specifically, there was some
evidence last week of commercial buying, nothing major
but worth keeping an eye on.

** Gold & Oil

Gold & Oil have had stellar performances with their trends
still pointing UP. As for GOLD, its COT chart remains
bearish, so be mindful of price break-downs. Oil's COT
chart is more constructive than that of gold's, as net-
commercial position remains well above 2007-lows.
However, as with any sizable rally, the time to be bullish
was probably 5-6 months ago. As for right now, down-side
risk, in my opinion, outweighs reward.

CHART:
USO - Stockcharts chart
Keep an eye on oil's price-chart, there is evidence of an
accelerating (parabolic) trend. It is probably not wise to
get in its way, but once a top IS in place, a steep correction
and/or a consolidation period are very likely.