COT Report and Morning News

One of the unique features of this site is that we follow smart money by checking government's COT report. The delayed report was released on Monday afternoon, I was busy yesterday and I feel the need to make a table and publish the results today. Here is the table:

Index	Trader Group	11/19/2007	11/26/2007	Difference
Dow	Commercials	-69	292	361
Nasdaq	Commercials	10273	6569	-3704
S&P 500	Commercials	45139	33256	-11883
Russ	Commercials	4776	4855	79
VIX	Commercials	4177	4051	-126
Oil	Commercials	-23136	-28584	-5448

These are the net positions of commercial traders (institutions and hedge funds) on various indexes on last Tuesday, they provide a rare opportunity for us to check into the sentiment of the institutional traders, commonly known as the "Smart Money".

Remember, even the smart money can be wrong sometimes and these are the numbers in the past, the market sentiment can change in any moment based on news, earning release and rumors.

Biotech stocks were very strong in Tuesday’s session and could be at a major turning point in the group’s two-month decline.

Chinese Market News Brief

Oil giants upset with Ecuador's tax rise:
President Rafael Correa of Ecuador shocked investors in October by raising the windfall tax from 50 percent to 99 percent, grabbing nearly all the extra oil revenues generated by foreign firms above a set contractual price.

This has had a huge impact on PetroChina, Sinopec and Sinochem; they all have investments in Ecuador. It's reported that PetroChina and Sinopec are preparing to seek help from international arbitration organizations. Sinochem has a US$200 million investment in Ecuador; the company is also preparing to renegotiate their contracts.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Correa arrived in Beijing on Monday for a week long state visit. Senior officials from PetroChina and Sinopec are expected to meet the Oil Minister of Ecuador to discuss the oil tax. However, insiders said that it is not likely that the Ecuadorian side will compromise.

Enjoy,

Market Swimmer

Cyber Monday and OSTK

OSTK -- 20% Discount?

CNN Lou Dobbs Reported:

The Wall Street is waiting for the Black Monday retail sales number. According to the early estimates, the un-official Christmas holiday start shopping is surprisingly strong, Black Friday sales jumped 8-9% over last year!

At the same time, people are celebrating the first official "Cyber Monday", the online e-retailers have been pushing special offers and promotions to draw consumers.

On Friday, the biggest shopping of the year, regular retailers sold over $10 billion gifts/products in their shopping malls and department stores.

Expert estimates that the online store will sell nearly $700 million consumer products on Cyber Monday, enjoy 20% increase year after year. One of the emerging star of e-retailer is Overstock.com (OSTK). This is from Yahoo News:

As the online holiday shopping season officially kicks off Monday, a number of retailers are hosting one-day sales or special offers for the occasion. The Monday after Thanksgiving, tagged "Cyber Monday" by the National Retail Federation, marks the first big online shopping surge for many merchants, as consumers go back to their work computers.

Toys "R" Us Inc. will hold a one-day online sale and rival eToys.com will launch a two-day sale. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. will begin five days of online-only sales.

Online jeweler Blue Nile Inc. will give customers 20 percent off purchases paid through PayPal, eBay Inc.'s electronic payment division. Target Corp., Circuit City Stores Inc., Sears Holdings Corp., Crate & Barrel, the Discovery Store and Overstock.com Inc. are among dozens of retailers offering free shipping that day.

I just turn on my radio at 1320 AM in Houston, at about 7:50 AM when I took my kid to school (oh, I missed Paul Harvey, I hated it) and Patrik was on the radio. He said (this is important, please take a note of it)

• Overstock just signed an agreement with Paypal, anybody shop on OVERSTOCK today with get free-shipping (small potato, he always gives free shipping)


• And shop with Paypal will get 20% money back! This is huge, I couldn't believe my ears, I need to check on this and tell my wife. Could somebody check it out for me?

OK, this is confirmed, I got this from his website:



I will see if I can get recording from the podcasting, and report to you later.

Here are the audio files, courtesy of Brent Clanton. I made a comment on his blog yesterday - 26th - asking for the interview audio files, he sent to me by email last night and read my comment on the Radio this morning - 27th.

Patrick Byrne Part-I

Patrick Byrne Part-II

Thank you Brent for your files and kind comments on your radio show (Houston BizRadio 1320 AM) about my blog!!!

To access Brent's blog, please look for a link on the right sidebar- "Brent Clanton" .

Market Swimmer

CFTC Delayed Release of COT Report

US Commodity Futures Trading Commission usually releases COT report every Friday at 3:30 PM. But last Friday was a holiday, so the releasing has been delayed till Monday the 26th.



The major indices chopped higher in a narrow range day to end the holiday-shortened week. This quiet action should give way to a major move, higher or lower, by the middle of this week.

After market close on Monday, we should check on the government COT report to peek into the trading actions of big institutions, looking for clues of future market direction.

At the present time, the market seems over-sold, both commercial traders and small individual investors think the market is due for a bounce. We will see if market can hold the gain or not.

Other website development:

I have installed a software piece for "Gravatar" - Global Avatar! Avatar refers to a profile picture a visitor can use when he/she leaves a comment on a post.

What is an Avatar?

A computer avatar is a personalized graphic file or rendering that represents a computer user. There are basically two types of avatars: those used at websites, such as on Web exchange boards, and those used in gaming and virtual worlds.

The simplest type of avatar is a small graphics file used on websites. Websites that offer chat boards often allow members to upload an avatar to represent themselves. The avatar can be a real-life digital photo of the person using it, but is more often an image intended to be a creative alter ego. This might be a game-rendered snapshot of a beast, hero, or heroine; a humorous picture of a pet or cartoonish character; or a design that makes a statement. The avatar appears alongside the user’s comments, easily identifying the author for others at a glance.

You can go to www.kaneva.com to experience the virtual reality, or go to http://www.findavatar.info/ to pick up an Avatar you would like. To create a GLOBAL AVATOR, which means that you can go anywhere and leave your comments with one digital image you prefer, please go to http://site.gravatar.com/signup to create an account by using your email. Remember, Avatar is free and fun, you create one to satisfy your own ego, my responsibility is to make sure it will work on my site. We don't maintain your Avatar in anyway. On the other hand, an Avatar is not required to leave comments on my site.

I encourage all of you to give it a try and leave your comments on this board. To give you an example, I and a new friend "deep blue" a couple of comments on the last post http://marketswimmer.com/?p=147. Please take a look. If you have any problems, please let me know.

Have a terrific holiday season,

Market Swimmer

The Market Kicks off the Holiday Season with a BIG BANG!

Markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, and Friday trading closed early at 1 p.m. Eastern time. Expectations for this holiday season had been lowered following drops in consumer confidence surveys.

"Take the consumer confidence readings, they're just numbers from surveys," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services. "But now we're finding out what consumer spending is really like, so the weekend numbers will be very important for the market."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU 12,980.88, +181.84, +1.4%) rallied 181 points to finish at 12,980. The S&P 500 index ($SPX 1,440.70, +23.93, +1.7%) gained 23 points to 1,440, while the Nasdaq Composite ($COMP 2,596.60, +34.45, +1.3%) rose 34 points to 2,596.

Remember, this is a short session and a lot of traders are shopping for their holidays. Nevertheless, let's celebrate the impressive market move by watching a Youtube Chinese music piece - Huo Yuan Jia (adapted from a Chinese Kung Fu movie):

Enjoy,

Market Swimmer

P.S. Forget about trading for a moment, I just watched a movie - "The Family Man" - starred by Nicolas Cage (released in the year of 2000) on NBC. It's an old one, but pretty good. A hedge fund manager "Jack" turned into a tire salesman, married with "Kate", having two kids. A personal note, little Swimmer just got an offer from a big hedge fund in NYC, I am a little worried about it. Anyway, please check it out if you have not seen it:

I missed the beginning, see more on my "YouTube" page:
Market Swimmer YouTube.

SSE Index Dipped 1.5%, But Hong Kong Stocks Gain

Share prices drop slightly on Wednesday

Chinese share prices on Wednesday dropped slightly with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A and B shares, dipped 79.47 points, or 1.50 percent, to 5,214.23. The Shenzhen Component Index on the smaller Shenzhen Stock Exchange dropped 239.29 points, or 1.41 percent, to 16,748.19.

The Hushen 300 Index, accounting for 60 percent of the nation’s stock market value, was down 71.76 points, or 1.42 percent, to 4,997.62.

(Xinhua News Agency November 21, 2007)

HK stocks gain 1.13% on turnaround trading

Hong Kong stocks rebounded from a huge deficit of more than 1,000 points in early trading to close 311.04 points higher at 27,771.21 on Tuesday.

The blue-chip Hang Seng Index opened 876.53 points, or 3.19 percent, sharply lower at 2,6583.64 under the combined impact of Wall Street's overnight slump and the Chinese mainland market downturns in early trading.

The index plunged as much as 1,055.89 points, or 3.85 percent, to the day's lowest 26,404.28 during the morning session.

nvestors chose to scoop up cheap equities when trading was resumed in the afternoon, encouraged by the turnaround performance of markets on the Chinese mainland and Japan.

Investors' orders for market heavyweight China Mobile, together with oil and steel sectors, boosted the index out of the negative territory in the afternoon to close 311.04 points, or 1.13 percent, higher at 27,771.21, just off the day's highest level at 27,851.31.

Turnover rose to 146.41 billion HK dollars (18.83 billion U.S. dollars) from Monday's 103.96 billion HK dollars (13.37 billion U. S. dollars).

China Mobile, the country's largest mobile phone operator and the market's largest stock measured by capitalization, pared its early losses and rebounded from the day's lowest 125 HK dollars to close 1.97 percent higher at 134.4 HK dollars.

HSBC, another market heavyweight and the city's largest bank, narrowed its losses by dipping 0.22 percent to 135.2 HK dollars. It once fell to the day's lowest 132.3 HK dollars.

Bank of EastAsia rose 4.77 percent to 50.55 HK dollars while BOCHK fell 2.84 percent to 19.18 HK dollars. BOCHK announced Monday it has bought a 4.94 percent stake in Bank of EastAsia.

PetroChina, the largest oil producer in China, rose 2.2 percent to 14.84 HK dollars. CNOOC, China's largest offshore oil producer, surged 5.93 percent to 13.22 HK dollars. Sinopec, the largest oil refiner in Asia, leaped 4.61 percent to 10.9 HK dollars.

Hong Kong's property companies were mixed. New World Development fell 3.82 percent to 26.45 HK dollars while Sino Land lost 2.76 percent to 24.65 HK dollars. SHK Properties gained 1.96 percent to 149.8 HK dollars. Cheung Kong gained 0.79 percent to 139.7 HK dollars.

Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Limited, the market's sole operator, dipped 0.61 percent 228.2 HK dollars.

The H-shares index, which was composed of companies registered on the Chinese mainland, gained 332.21 points, or 2.01 percent, to close at 16,867.38.

Most of China's Banking and financials rebounded. ICBC, China's largest lender, rose 2 percent to 6.12 HK dollars. CCB, the second largest bank in China, gained 1.78 percent to 7.44 HK dollars. Bank of China slid 0.47 percent to 4.26 HK dollars.

China Life, or the country's largest life insurer, recovered 2 percent to 43.45 HK dollars. Ping An gained 0.92 percent to 88.15 HK dollars.

Iron and steel sectors all jumped over rising sales prices. Angang Steel jumped 8.19 percent to 21.8 HK dollars. Maanshan Iron surged 10.71 percent to 5.48 HK dollars. Shougang International gained 1.16 percent to 3.49 HK dollars.

(Xinhua News Agency November 21, 2007)

Guru View

Developing Stories:

• Evidence of significant commercial interest on the long-side for crude oil - as of last week.


• Commercials continue to sell the US dollar as its dropping to record lows. This is very bearish: Key resistance at 76. So if we rally above 76, watch out for a short squeeze.


• The US stock market remains weak after breaking below key levels a few weeks ago. We may see a bottom soon, as the indexes are nearing key support, while the NASDAQ-100 is displaying relative strength...

PTR enters major stock indices

PetroChina Co Ltd (Symbol PTR in RS stock market), China's largest oil refiner, was today added to the Shanghai Stock Exchange series indices and the China Securities Index series indices, including the CSI300 index.

As of last Friday's close, PetroChina shares had shrunken almost 25 percent to 38.32 yuan from an opening price of 48.6 yuan on November 5, when Asia's most profitable company was listed in the Shanghai bourse.

Last Friday, PetroChina shares had a total market value of 6.14 trillion yuan, accounting for 23.2 percent of the total market value of all shares listed in Shanghai. PetroChina has left the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) far behind. Previously the heaviest weight in Shanghai, ICBC shares on Friday accounted for only 7.93 percent of the total market value of the Shanghai exchange.

Calculated on the closing price of the Shanghai Composite Index on November 16, or 5,316 points, PetroChina took up 1,097 points. In other words, if PetroChina's share price changes by 1 percent, the benchmark Shanghai index will move 10.97 points.

Calculated on the closing price of the CSI300 index on Friday of 5,007 points, PetroChina weighted 111 points. That means if PetroChina share price changes by 1 percent, the CSI300 index will move 1.11 points.

Based on PetroChina's closing price of 38.82 yuan last Friday, a price change of 0.01 yuan would cause the Shanghai Composite Index to lose 0.31 points. Supposing PetroChina had been included in the index on Friday, its gain of 0.91 yuan that day would have led the index to go up 28.21 points.

Please book mark this site, the only reliable source for Chinese Stock Market.

To take your free training sessions, check the Education on the menu bar.

Or do your Holiday Shopping (menu bar) on AMAZON and WIN $10,000!

(Based on China Daily November 19, 2007)

COT Report

According to the government sources, the commercials changed their net future positions of various indexes as the following:

Index	Trader Group	11/9/2007	11/16/2007	Difference
Dow	Commercials	-1093	-69	1024
Nasdaq	Commercials	6050	10273	4223
S&P 500	Commercials	46398	45139	-1259
Russ	Commercials	4754	4776	22
VIX	Commercials	119	4177	4058

They increased their long positions in NASD slightly, but they were big buyers of VIX index, expecting volatility to increase.

Last week's volatile action is giving a marginally better look to the index charts as we head toward the Thanksgiving holiday but there are still no bottoming signals in place.

Market Swimmer

Holiday Shopping

Buy holiday spirited movies on Amazon.com.

• Look for a particular title on the lower box
  
• Some of them have free previews (for example: Bionic Woman)
  
• Click on the "blue" link in the right box to go to Amazon
  
• You can even download 2 hours movie onto your computer!
  

Have fun.
You can always come back to the Online Shopping Department on the new Blogsite.

You can also find the latest movies such as "Lust and Caution" at Online Shopping Department

Market Swimmer

Your Training Needs

In response to the overwhelming requests on TRADER'S TRAINING, I created this new website. The new website has the following advantages to the old one:

First of all, the new site protects your privacy better. On the old site I could only use the simple web contact form. As a result, my own email address was exposed, I started receiving spam. On the new website platform, both your and my email addresses are not exposed in any of the contact forms, some of them even have an intelligent function to distinguish if you are a human or a robot. So anything you filled in is well protected, all your information is secure and nobody can spam you.

Secondly, to serve you better, I teamed up with "Online Trading Academy", the world most trusted name of investor/trader training organization, to create a Financial Education Center where you can find the best professional trading materials no matter where you are located in the world. They have 10 - 15 locations in the US, and several locations in Singapore and Europe. I will create a menu page on the menu bar dedicated for training purpose (we can run streaming videos and podcasting) if there is enough interests. If you would like to have it please leave comments or contact me with the contact form.

I created several links on this site, some of you may find it confusing. Here is a guideline on how to use them:

If you are anywhere in Texas, USA, you can click on the menu on the top shown as "Vince Rowe", where you can get access to the investing legend's own blog site and podcasting from Houston - BizRadio, also if you would like you can use our in house contact form to send me a note, I will send you a direct link to a TRADER'S TRAINING streaming video free.

If you are any where in the world, please find the right side bar and click on the icon with a red star. This will lead you to a Financial Education Center (notice the Swimmer logo on the top, kind of neat, huh?) where you can do your shopping on training courses and finding your free training sessions ($100 worth). If it's too frustrating to find the right one, please contact me with the contact form, I will send you a direct link via email.

Or you can click the big banner on the left, this is an online store where you have variety of choices ranging from personal training materials, CD's DVD's to to "hard core" 7 day training courses (which Swimmer has never gone through).

Hope all these can benefit you and satisfy your training needs. If you have any comments or questions, you know how to get a hold of me, don't you? Just use the contact form or make comments on any of the posts, I will respond to you as quickly as I can.

Take care,

Market Swimmer
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BIDU - A BUYING OPPORTUNITY - CITIGROUP SAYS

CITIGROUP SAYS BAIDU.COM IS ATTRACTIVE BUYING OPPORTUNITY, MAINTAINS BUY

Citigroup analyst Jason Brueschke says Baidu.com (BIDU) shares lost 30% of value in five days. He says the sell-off appears to have been caused by Cisco Systems' (CSCO) disappointing outlook last week for its U.S. enterprise business, but says Baidu's China search market has little fundamental correlation with near-term outlook for US router demand.

Brueschke notes that the company guided for accelerating fourth quarter revenue growth, and posted very strong third quarter fundamental metrics. He says BIDU remains his top pick in China Internet for 2008. He has a $425 target price, based on target multiple at a 70% premium to China Internet peers, mainly due to BIDU's higher-than-peers EPS growth prospects and potential of China's nascent search market.

Chinese Market Roar!

Encouraged by the more than 300 points gain, China Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) increased almost 5%.

Sharp gain of Chinese stock market also lifted Hong Kong market, which a lot of people treat it as gate way to the less accessible Chinese market. The latest news -- Apple is going to China!

HONG KONG, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Hong Kong blue chips jumped nearly 5 percent on Wednesday, boosted by Wall Street gains, asChina Mobile (NYSE symbol, CHL, 0941.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) surged after the wireless operator said itis talking to Apple Inc (AAPL: Quote, Profile, Research) about offering iPhones to Chinese wireless market.

Hong Kong-listed China plays bolted 6.8 percent, with Sinopec Corp (SHI in US, 0386.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) rallying up to 12 percent on expectations easing
crude prices will widen the refiner's margins.

AAPL jumped more than $5 after the news release. As people worried about over valuation of Chinese stocks, there are some less known chinese ADRs traded in US actually having very attractive fundamentals. For instance, the following Chinese stocks have very low forward PE ratios:

CBAK, CSIQ, ACTS, ASIA, GSOL

JRJC is a little high in PE, but this stock took a hit lately, expect to rebound.

Enjoy,

Market Swimmer

Daily Picks

It's time to pick up some over-sold/defensive stocks and short some high runing speculative stocks.

Although mortgage turmoil seems to be widening, E-Trade is the recent victim of CDO short falls. But Citibank is over-sold, so I am re-iterating buy recommendation for WCG and issue a buy recommendation for C:

Long: WCG and C

At the same time, I am using my spreadsheet scan through the past "Super Stars" and discovered that MICC, POT are breaking down.

Short: MICC POT

Market Swimmer

COT Report, Guru View

Source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (WWW.cftc.gov)

Index	Trader Group	11/2/2007	11/9/2007	Difference
Dow	Commercials	-177	-1093	-916
Nasdaq	Commercials	5885	6050	165
S&P 500	Commercials	51694	46398	-5296
Russ	Commercials	3427	4754	1327
VIX	Commercials	-4304	119	4423

In last week, Commercial traders sold off S&P and Dow, but increased holdings on Russell index slightly. They also bought heavily on the VIX - Volatility index, expecting tough time ahead. After testing support for several days, the stock-market indexes finally broke-down below critical support levels.

Monday morning crash talk is in the air, but the market gods have denied that event through every other opportunity in the last 20 years. Of course, anything could happen because this is easily the worst price action since the summer of 2002.

In short term, the market has been severely over-sold, but it's time to exercise caution!

Hope the best for all,

Market Swimmer

The New Site is Up!

Sorry, my new blog site has been down for one day or two, a long story. But now it's up and running again.

The new site, www.marketswimmer.com was "hard wired" to another domain which I purchased sometime ago. Recently I got a letter saying my domain needed renewal, unsuspecting me paid $25 for that. Unfortunately I have been scammed! Last Thurday, I found out my website has been locked, I was in panic because I don't want my views not being able to access my blog. I called Yahoo - my web hosting company - only to find out that I don't need to pay any renewal, my web hosting monthly charge includes domain renewal and automatically renew every year. At the same time, the scammer send me email, asking me to unlock my domain so that they can get control of my domain.

The name of the company is "Liberty Names of America", be careful everybody! Don't respond to any letter or email from any company you don't have any business association with.

Jim Boykin's Blog gives a good account of Liberty Names's scam:

http://www.jimboykin.com/liberty-names-of-america/

By the way, I contacted the Best Business Bureau, made complaint, called my credit card company, put a dispute on the charge, called the scam artist company and got back my credit.

For the rebuilt MarketSwimmer site, things should be better. Previously I could not use back button on IE, it should work now. Will be a lot of improvement. I will move some of comments into the new site.

Thank you and enjoy,

Market Swimmer

Alibaba's IPO in Hong Kong

Alibaba looks to be world's 2nd largest Internet IPO

Alibaba.com kicked off the road show of its IPO yesterday. Its indicative IPO prices ranged from 10 to 12 Hong Kong dollars. Based on such calculations, Alibaba's IPO will raise 10.31 billion Hong Kong dollars, beating the expected 7.8 billion Hong Kong dollars and making it the largest IPO by a Chinese Internet company.

In 2003, Google was listed on the NASDAQ, raising 1.67 US dollars (about 13.026 Hong Kong dollars). Alibaba will hopefully become the world second largest Internet IPO. It will also become the largest in Hong Kong, replacing the record set by Tencent（0700.HK), which raised 1.55 billion Hong Kong dollars.

There were strong demands for the shares of Alibaba.com. Following Yahoo.com and Guo Taiming of Honhai Precision Industry, it acquired another five new investors: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Wharf president Wu Guangzheng, Guo Henian of Kerry Group Limited, families of Sun Hung Kai Properties, and American International Group, Inc. (AIG) .

Chairman of Mengniu Group Niu Gensheng and Secretary of the Bo'ao Forum for Asia Long Yongtu will act as the independent directors of Alibaba.com.

For more details, please read the full story in Chinese (http://www.dfdaily.com/node2/node27/node120/userobject1ai33236.shtml).

Guru View

Introducing the new blogger site: www.marketswimmer.com

** US Dollar

The US Dollar continues its 'relentless' decline. While there
are no signs of a bottom on the price-chart, the COT chart
is not any less bearish. Commercial position has been
declining marginally, but declining never the less for the last
5 consecutive days. Commercials typically like to buy when
prices fall. Well, the USD has been clearly falling, and
commercials are NOT buying.
In other words, the outlook for the USD continues to
remain bearish from a price/COT chart perspective.

** Stock Market

DIA - Stockcharts chart
After Thursday's sell-off: the markets reversed on
Friday after bottoming near key support levels:
Dow Jones - 13400
S&P 500 - 1490
Russell 2000 - 790

If we hold above these levels in the coming weeks, one
may argue that a short-term bottom is in place and we
are headed back up to test overhead resistance.

From the COT charts, not much has changed. The S&P
500 & Dow Jones charts look constructive. While the
Russell 2000 & Nasdaq 100 charts look bearish.
As for the Nasdaq 100 chart specifically, there was some
evidence last week of commercial buying, nothing major
but worth keeping an eye on.

** Gold & Oil

Gold & Oil have had stellar performances with their trends
still pointing UP. As for GOLD, its COT chart remains
bearish, so be mindful of price break-downs. Oil's COT
chart is more constructive than that of gold's, as net-
commercial position remains well above 2007-lows.
However, as with any sizable rally, the time to be bullish
was probably 5-6 months ago. As for right now, down-side
risk, in my opinion, outweighs reward.

CHART:
USO - Stockcharts chart
Keep an eye on oil's price-chart, there is evidence of an
accelerating (parabolic) trend. It is probably not wise to
get in its way, but once a top IS in place, a steep correction
and/or a consolidation period are very likely.

Swimmer's New Blog Site

Introducing the new blogger site: www.marketswimmer.com

Thanks for visiting my blog. In order to serve you better I created a new blog site at www.marketswimmer.com. Taking an advice from one of our visitors, I created this new site by using the permanent web address and a much better blog publishing software - WordPress! I have tried hard to move everything from this site to the new site; including posts, comments and so on... Please take a look, if I missed anything, please let me know.

The new publishing environment offers a lot of enhanced capabilities such as multi-page publishing and three-column design. Some of the features may not be obvious for now, but several things should start catching your eyes from now on:

One thing makes tremendous difference is the multi-paging style, which enable me to separate informational contents. For instance, now I can create a page titled as "Daily Picks", with which you don't have to browse through all the pages in order to find the newest picks, you can find my picks in the same location every time, all the times.

Also, WordPress is such a popular blog publishing tool that we have a large variety of themes and plug-ins to choose from. In particular, I like the 3-column design and the calendar on the right side bar very much. With the calender, you can see which day I published posts and which day I didn't; finding an old post is just as simple as flipping through calender pages and clicking on the dates!

I will add pod-casting/video and trader training courses on the web pages, and the beautiful thing is that they are totally free!

As the web building process takes a while to complete, for a period of time I will simultaneously publish on both locations. I do prefer you make your comments on the new site because they have much better comment managing system. I won't moderate the comments in anyway, it's just so much easier for me to see all the comments at the same time and reply them more quickly.

On the new "Contact" page, you can send me your feedback with confidence because it's designed to protect you from the hackers and spamers alike. For instance, your message and address will never be exposed. It also has a function trying to identify you as a human or "robot", as long as you answer a math question correctly, your message can go through. When you click the send button, your message and email address will go directly to my server, so nobody can grab your "real" email address and send you spam!

The new template also have impressive graphics; the theme, header graph and color can be changed as easy as a few key strokes. I will move all the goodies from here to there, at the meantime I suggest you go there and take a look. Any comments and suggestions are welcome.

Best of luck to you all!

Market Swimmer

Guru View

**

The stock market has reversed after first testing new
highs (for the week) on Wednesday following the FED
decision - only to dramatically sell-off on Thursday
violating short-term support.
This breakdown in price is starting to confirm the
bearish COT charts of the Nasdaq 100 and Russell
2000.

It looks like we are headed for a test of last week's
reaction-lows. Here are the support levels:
Dow Jones- 13,400 | 134 for the DIA etf
Russell 2000- 790 | 78.5 for the IWM etf
S&P 500- 1,490 | 149 for the SPY etf
NASD 100- 2125 | 52 for QQQQ etf

Even though it declined for the day, the Nasdaq-100 price
chart continues to look the most constructive out of all the
indexes. The intermediate trend remains UP unless we
start to break below critical support at around 2125.

If the above support levels are taken out, the US stock
market is going to start to paint a bearish trend. Consider
the breakdowns in financial companies such as Citibank.
Also keep in mind that the Russell 2000 closed below 800
today. Last time that happened, the RUT reversed in the
very next session - to the upside. We'll see if the bulls
show up this time around...