Guru View

Insider Guru expressed his opinion on market direction:

** The NASDAQ-100 continues to show commercial
accumulation, while the other indexes are largely
unchanged. Coincidentally - or perhaps not - the
NASDAQ-100 index is displaying relative strength
in comparison to the other indexes.
In terms of the market's trend, the bottom is not
yet confirmed. The Russell 2000 tested critical
resistance at 800, but failed to decisively close
above this level. On the downside, the indexes
are holding well above their August reaction-lows,
so before we break out of August's range I remain
neutral on the stock-market...At this moment in time
the COT charts support a bullish resolution unless we
begin to see breakdowns in commercial net-positions...

** The VIX has rallied to an area that I think may act as
resistance right around 27. Be aware of several unfilled
gaps on the VIX in the 17-19 range; a decline in the VIX
to this range would most probably coincide with a sizable
market rally.

** Crude oil has broken out above short-term resistance at 74.
We are now very close to re-testing resistance at 78.
Meanwhile, longer-term resistance is at 80, so if we were
to break 78 a re-test of the 80 level is a logical assumption.
Thus far, the COT chart for crude looks constructive: it looks
like this market may need a short rest before breaking out to
new highs. The only thing that would change my mind is
a price breakdown below 69 or significant commercial selling.

** Gold is finally starting to break out of its trading range. We
are currently testing resistance at 700. And while the COT
chart is not forecasting a big rally in gold, we must respect
the trend which is now starting to point UP. A very key
area of support is right around 688-689. If we hold above
this level, then we are probably headed for a retest of a
longer-term resistance level at 725-730.